FEAR of FALL similar to 1998..!!!

Russia 1998 crisis haunts Deutsche Bank analyst seeing China bust
Deutsche Bank analyst says China is not such a safe haven as most market commentators appear to believe
Lyubov Pronina
London: China’s push to open up its economy is winning praise from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Morgan Stanley and Jefferies Group LLC, which predicted last month a massive multiyear bull run for stocks.
John-Paul Smith doesn’t share the enthusiasm.
When the Deutsche Bank AG equity strategist looks at the country, he says he detects some of the same signs of a financial meltdown that led him to predict Russia’s 1998 stock market crash months in advance. China’s expansion is being fueled by soaring corporate borrowing, a high-risk model that needs to be replaced by the kind of free-market measures and budget cuts that fed Russia’s growth in the aftermath of the country’s default and subsequent 44% monthly tumble in the Micex Index, Smith said.
There is potential for a debt trap in industrial companies which can trigger an economy-wide financial crisis as early as next year, Smith said in an interview from London on 12 December, a day after he issued a report predicting China’s slowdown will lead to a 10% decline in emerging-market stocks next year. “If I am wrong on China, I am wrong on everything.”
Smith’s 2013 call for a drop of at least 10% in developing-country stocks has proven prescient. The MSCI Emerging-Markets Index has slid 6.3%, trailing the 22% rally in MSCI’s developed-markets measure. The Shanghai Composite Index, the benchmark equity gauge in the world’s second-biggest economy, has lost 8.1%, heading for its third annual decline in four years.
Goldman, JefferiesThe selloff in Chinese stocks has eased since mid-November, when the government’s top policymakers pledged the biggest expansion of economic freedoms in at least two decades. Measures included encouraging private investment in state-controlled industries, accelerating convertibility of the currency and liberalizing interest rates, an initiative that helped drive interbank borrowing costs to a six-month high last week.
Morgan Stanley said the free-market push will boost consumption, technology and healthcare stocks while Jefferies Group said companies in industries including auto and insurance will do the best amid the bull market rally. Goldman Sachs upgraded Chinese equities to overweight in part because of the country’s commitment to reform, which seems quite palpable.
Smith, who has been bearish on China since he joined Deutsche Bank in 2010 from Pictet Asset Management, said he wants to see how the government carries out the policy changes.
Three-decade careerThe economy is at risk of expanding less than 5% annually over the next few years, he said. Gross domestic product (GDP) has grown less than 8% in each of the past six quarters, down from a high of 14% in 2007.
“The proof will be in the implementation,” said Smith, who’s the global emerging markets equities strategist at the Frankfurt-based bank. “It will be very interesting to see if they really intend to go down the same ‘hard state liberal economic’ path that Russia did from 1999 to the autumn of 2003. So far, there is no indication they are prepared for that.”
Smith, 52, has honed his market acumen over a three-decade career. Raised in the English town of Glossop, near Manchester, he studied modern history at Oxford’s Merton College before going to work as a European fund manager with Royal Insurance in 1983. From there, he did stints at TSB Investment Management, Rothschild Asset Management and Moscow-based Brunswick Brokerage, before joining Morgan Stanley in 1995 as a Russian equity strategist.
Russia visitIt was at Morgan Stanley that Smith made the call that he’s still best known for today, a forecast that got its inspiration in part from a visit he made in 1997 to a port city 965km south of Moscow.
In Rostov-on-Don, he got an up-close look at a combine-harvester maker that surprised him: the company was taking a year to build its planned weekly quota, it was still employing two-thirds of its Soviet-era workforce and it was drowning in unpaid bills and barter deals.
That trip helped Smith understand the growing financial crisis that would lead Russia to devalue the ruble and default on $40 billion of domestic debt in August 1998.
In a June 1997 report, he wrote that investors may not have begun to really focus on the possible fallout from companies’ growing financial struggles. Smith highlighted the Rostov-on-Don trip in a January 1998 note in which he reiterated that investors were too optimistic. Two months later, he wrote that Russia had to sort the situation out that year or its financing burden would become unsustainable and trigger a devaluation.
‘The savior’In the aftermath of the collapse, Smith turned bullish on Russian stocks at an investors’ meeting in New York in 1999. The market soared 235% that year. He calls it the best forecast of his career.
“I suggested that Russia was now cheap and should be an overweight and the meeting ended very quickly indeed amid some expressions of minor outrage,” said Smith, who is underweight Russian stocks today.
Following those calls, Smith spent nine years at Pictet, first as head of emerging markets equities where funds managed by his team almost quadrupled to $9 billion between 2001 and 2005. His Eastern European Trust Fund, with 40 percent of its assets in Russian equities on average, outperformed the MSCI Emerging Market Eastern Europe dollar index by 1.5 percentage points at the end of 2005.
When he joined Pictet in 2001, it was like the second coming as the savior of our emerging markets business, Stephen Barber, a managing director at parent company Pictet and Cie, wrote in a farewell note about Smith in June 2010. He did seem to perform miracles in the years that followed, as our emerging markets business recovered strongly.
Too earlyWhile Barber said that Smith had an ability to avoid getting caught up in the market euphoria, he often made his calls too early.
“When he was with us, he was for a long period bearish on China,” Barber said. “The analysis was absolutely correct but in the meantime, you can miss out on a bull market.”
“When you have a great strategist who has these insights, you have to nurture these insights, not kill them,” he said.
Smith wrote an article for the Financial Times in December 2007 saying he sensed that the worst in the subprime mortgage crisis was over and that the US market was poised to rally. The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression followed.
The analyst, who has also been wrongly bearish on oil since April 2011, says he learned to never take a strong view without a obtaining detailed understanding of the underlying fundamentals, such as what types of instruments were being held in the financial industry.
Credit boomSmith’s China call is another strong view. His colleagues at other banks are underestimating the risks, he said.
China’s total credit, including items off bank balance sheets, climbed to about 190% of the economy by the end of 2012 from 124% in 2008, according to Fitch Ratings Ltd. That was faster lending growth than in Japan during the late 1980s that foreshadowed two decades of deflation, and in the US before the financial crisis of 2008.
“It is really at the corporate level and at the micro level in China that the fate of the financial market and the economy there is going to be determined,” Smith said. China is not such a safe haven as most market commentators appear to believe. Bloomberghttp://www.livemint.com/Money/Xu4LZgzoJFZwiwJgiwQiTO/Russia-1998-crisis-haunts-Deutsche-Bank-analyst-seeing-China.html

Narendra Modi...Big Business....!!!!!!!!

Why Big Business strongly favours Narendra Modi
Thursday, Nov 28, 2013, 18:30 IST | Agency: DNA

Praful Bidwai 
India’s corporate world has launched a concerted campaign to “adopt” top politicians and enlist their support. Hence the media blitzkrieg projecting Narendra Modi as a “development” messiah, and major industry lobby meetings with him and with Rahul Gandhi.
Big Business would like the next parliament election to be a presidential-style contest. It’ll be nothing of the sort. The alliances led by the Big Two (Congress and BJP) are fraying. Their as-yet-unchosen nominees must painstakingly gather other parties’ support to shore them up.
Industry will do business with whoever comes to power — so long as it can wrest concessions. But that doesn’t spell political equidistance. Industry strongly favours Modi: unlike the somewhat circumspect Gandhi, Modi has a zealously pro-business agenda, with further deregulation, tax-breaks and public-private partnerships, along the “Gujarat Model” of development.
Ironically, as they become overtly “political”, businessmen exhibit enormous political myopia in ignoring the terrible stigma Modi carries for the butchery of 2002, shielding its perpetrators and mocking the rule of law.
Modi continues to be an abomination to citizens everywhere who treasure political decency, secularism, tolerance and social inclusion. Politically and morally, it would be impermissible to sanitise a perverse, autocratic and crassly communal politician like Modi even if the “Gujarat Model” were worth emulating.
It’s not. Gujarat is no leader even in growth, leave alone development. Its rank in per capita GDP has fallen since 1996-97 from 4th to 8th among 19 major Indian states.
Haryana, Punjab, Maharashtra, Kerala and Himachal Pradesh are ahead of it. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are only a notch below. In annual GDP growth in 2004-2012, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Bihar (respectively, 10.8, 10.3 and 11.4%) beat Gujarat (10.1%). Even Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh have outperformed Gujarat. Madhya Pradesh is now India’s fastest-growing state.
Gujarat’s recent growth is largely built on past gains, for which Modi cannot take credit. Gujarat’s industry is unbalanced, dominated by toxic chemicals production, shipbreaking and diamond polishing, and lately, polluting power generation.
Its agriculture, on which 52% of Gujaratis depend, is unstable, with two sharp recent food-output dips of 22 and 11%. Gujarat isn’t a unique foreign direct investment magnet. Maharashtra, Delhi, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu attracted much more FDI in 2000-2012 — Maharashtra, 678% more.
Gujarat’s human development index (HDI) record is even worse. Its HDI rank among states has fallen from six to nine.
It ranks an abysmal 18th in literacy and 25th in infant mortality. Its female-male sex-ratio is a dismal 918 per 1,000 (national average, 940).
The 0-6 sex-ratio (886) is India’s 27th lowest. In poverty reduction (8.6 percentage-points in 2004-2009), Gujarat lags behind Tamil Nadu (13.1), Maharashtra (13.7), Odisha (19.2) or Madhya Pradesh (11.9). Employment is almost stagnant in Gujarat since 2004-05, with less than 5% of households covered under the National Rural Employment Guarantee.
On hunger, Gujarat’s rank is an appalling 13 among 17 major states, including much poorer Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. It’s firmly in the Bihar-Odisha “acute-hunger” league. Even sub-Saharan Africa does better. Nearly 45% of Gujarati under-five children are malnourished.
Yet, Big Business loves the “Gujarat Model” because it gives huge tax write-offs (eg, over 60% on the Tatas’ Nano project). Business adores Modi for his ruthless decisiveness in granting super-fast industrial approvals. In promoting Modi, it’s committing the same blunders that Hitler’s and Mussolini’s business backers made — aggravating the grave threat to Indian democracy from the communal extreme-right.
The author is a writer, columnist and professor at the Council for Social Development, Delhi.Views expressed are personal.

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-why-big-business-strongly-favours-narendra-modi-1823847

Pharma industry......deep culture of corruption!!!!!!!

‘Pharma industry has a deep culture of corruption’CHIRANTAN CHATTERJEEDinesh Thakur, who blew the whistle on Ranbaxy’s compromises with quality, discusses Indian pharma's ills.Circumventing 56 patents protecting a medicine to re-invent a novel process and procure a 57th one for Eli Lilly’s drug Cefaclor had been Ranbaxy’s biggest claim to fame in the last couple of decades. But in 2013, the situation flipped in what can be termed as its summer of ‘dirty medicine’.Now widely reported by international press,Ranbaxy, the maker of generic Lipitor to millions of Americans and pioneer in India’s generic medicines revolution, paid damages to the tune of $500 million to settle on corporate fraud related to unethical production of medicines that compromised on quality. These transgressions by Ranbaxy would not have surfaced had it not been for a certain gentleman,Dinesh Thakur, who was the insider and thewhistleblower in this case. Thakur, who subsequently was rewarded for revealing the truth, discusses in this conversation with Prof Chirantan Chatterjee, IIM Bangalore, the future of ‘Quality Medicine’ coming from the Indian generics pharmaceutical industry.Whistleblowers, much like Thakur, have earlier received plush incentives for their job well done; but this conversation also reveals a man who deeply cares about public health, corporate fraud and quality medicines coming from India, the pharmacy of the world.I will start off by asking how you view the Indian drug-quality situation has impacted ‘Brand India’ in export markets? Clearly, pharmaceuticals is a great story for the brand outside but how do you think this brand will suffer abroad/is suffering abroad and what concrete steps can be taken to redeem that situation?Let’s begin by understanding what “Brand India” represents. Two of the storied industries from India are IT Services and Generic Pharmaceuticals. In both cases, the brand represents “low cost” at its core. Offshore IT-enabled services are based on the labour cost arbitrage between India and the west. Likewise, lower manufacturing costs, coupled with a protective patent enforcement environment for over 25 years, allowed Indian generic manufacturers to develop competencies in producing low-cost generic drugs. So the focus has always been on “the cost”, often at the expense of quality. Otherwise, how do you explain the overwhelming desire of the Indian consumer who prefers “foreign” manufactured goods, from consumer electronics to automobiles, often at a premium price?Now that we have defined what “Brand India” stands for, let’s address the question you asked. Has it taken a beating abroad? The answer is not yet. Even though the case with Ranbaxy was so egregious, it’s still one instance. Although we have seen the beginning of the domino effect with Wockhardt, Strides Arcolab, RPG Life Sciences and many more, Ranbaxy stands as a singular instance of wrongdoing of epic proportions (seven criminal felony pleas). Fortunately, generic drug manufacturers are not a household name like their innovator counterparts in the west; so despite being in the news, consumers haven’t fully connected them with the wrongdoing. However, if this trend continues with other generic drug manufacturers based in India, then it is clear that the brand will take a beating.There are three things that can be done immediately to alleviate this problem. First, make public health a priority for the country. For a country of over a billion people, we do a terrible job of ensuring safety and effective services in public health. Second, fix the regulatory mess. Institute a proper regulatory system within India and install competent authorities to implement the rules; get rid of the bureaucracy that stifles this industry. Third, change the focus from “low cost” generics to “high quality” generics. Implement a system of quality controls and incentivised integrity programmes to ensure compliance. As Will Rogers once said, you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Let’s not ruin the opportunity we have and make the right impression for “Brand India”.In a recent article you have noted that India’s main problem in drug regulation is that “nationalism has replaced health protection as the guiding principle of drug regulation”. Can you elaborate on that? How do you view that to evolve especially since ‘nationalism’ has always been a key reason why countries engender a strong domestic pharmaceutical industry? Are there junctures where industries need to evolve from such a view of pharmaceutical industrial development?The reaction to what happened at Ranbaxy after my case became public in India is symptomatic of the myopic view of the industry and the regulators in India. It is a well-known fact that there are two standards of manufacturing medicines in India, one for what are called “regulated markets”, which include the US and Western Europe and the other for what are called “less regulated markets”, which include India among others. The standards for product quality at locations that cater to the “less regulated markets” are several notches below those implemented at facilities that manufacture drugs for the US, for example, even among large companies. This is a well-known fact in the industry.Of the several hundreds (or perhaps thousands) of companies that make products for the Indian market, only a small percentage supply the US market; and hence have the technical know-how and expertise to comply with a higher standard of quality. Given all this, how do you explain the response from the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Health, the industry itself and the Indian Regulator which have yet to find one quality related violation at any of Ranbaxy’s manufacturing facilities? I am quite sure that patients in India wouldn’t like to take drugs which are made in a facility that has urinals lacking running water for employees to wash their hands after using the toilet. This was an observation in a recent US FDA inspection report. How is it that the inspectors from the Indian regulator did not find this objectionable, let alone all the rest of violations in the manufacturing process, which are far more egregious? In an effort to buttress the image of the Indian pharma industry, we are beginning to lose credibility if we keep asserting sabotage from foreign competition.India cannot be afraid to look at what is wrong. If we hope to compete in the international marketplace, whether it is medicines, food, IT services or automobiles, we have to be able to reliably deliver a quality product. Nationalism is not at odds with sound business practices. India developed a strong domestic pharma industry because the policies we have had for 30 years were nationalistic. Today, the industry makes more money from selling its products to the west than it does in India. Rather than introspect on what went wrong, the reaction is to blame everyone but us. Pride is a dangerous thing, especially if it prevents people and nations from taking an honest inventory. A true patriot says “we can do better”; a false patriot on the other hand says “we are good enough”. As we have begun to see, our problems are not limited to just one company; they are industry-wide. We better address them before we lose our standing in the international marketplace.Big Pharma has been much maligned earlier and quality crisis is nothing new in this sector globally. In fact it was only last year that Grunenthal issued an apology for the ‘Thalidomide Crisis’ — 50 years after the actual crisis happened and changed the face of drug regulation. Your take on whether the Ranbaxy case is different from past ethical violations that have manifested in the pharmaceutical world globally? And if yes, how is it different?You are comparing apples to oranges. The makers of Thalidomide did not intentionally set out to poison women and children; they were ignorant and did not think a drug taken by a pregnant woman could pass along the placental barrier. The regulations that govern the approval of drugs today, the extent of testing required are a direct consequence of the Thalidomide tragedy. What happened at Ranbaxy was not an accident caused by ignorance. People in positions of decision-making authority knew full well what the impact of their actions would be. This was callous indifference to human life; a devil’s deal to put profits before patients and risk the lives of the unseen for the personal profit of a few. But yes, if your point is that the pharma industry seems to have a deep culture of corruption, I wouldn’t disagree. But I am not sure the Thalidomide case is an example of that, however.A couple of decades ago, in 1993, Harvard and Chicago economists Andrei Schleifer and Robert Vishy, in a pioneering article titled “Corruption” in the “Quarterly Journal of Economics,” posit two hypotheses about corruption: (1) the structure of government institutions and of the political process are very important determinants of the level of corruption. In particular, weak governments that do not control their agencies experience very high corruption levels. (2) the illegality of corruption and the need for secrecy make it much more distortionary and costly than its sister activity, taxation. Which among these two views applies more to India’s corporate drug regulation issues in general? Any thoughts on how to remedy the situation?The annual budget for the CDSCO until recently for a country this large was less than $7 million. Are you surprised then that the bureaucrats are cosying up to the industry, that they cannot locate approvals (secrecy) that they gave to the industry to conduct clinical studies? When was the last time we had a person qualified in public health head the CDSCO?Given the scathing reports in Parliament, the remedy now seems to be to appoint an appellate board consisting of more bureaucrats and a few functional experts (medical doctors) to oversee the regulatory body. What do we expect to accomplish with this new structure? Efficiency or transparency? Why is it acceptable for us to have a very qualified and extremely competent Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, an institution that oversees monetary policy and not for the institution that is responsible for public health of a country of over a billion people? Is public health not half as important as fiscal health for us? Compare the transparency in the processes of the RBI to those of the CDSCO; is there a comparison at all? So it’s true in this case that the structure of the institution and of the political processes are a key determinant of the state we find ourselves in today.Plants grow stronger and faster when they are watered; likewise, as a society, we get more of what we incentivise. There are parallels in other democracies which work; they have worked for hundreds of years now. Laws like the False Claims Act have worked in the US in prosecuting corporate fraud in many situations, from healthcare to defence, from stock swindles to oil and gas price-gouging. People speak of incentivised integrity as a “bounty programme”; honestly, in the real world, if you want to get rid of a big fierce animal that is predating on the community, a bounty programme works very well.I want to draw your attention to an emerging view in the strategy literature. Some strategy scholars have recently argued that it’s not industry structure (inspired by Porter’s 5 forces) or the resources (inspired by the resource based view and competencies of firms) that determine long-run competitive advantage of firms. It might be what some are calling it ‘influence rents’ — the rents certain firms over others are differentially able to extract from institutions — that might be determining success for a firm. One test of the fact that ‘influence rents’ exist comes from the existence of the lobbying industry, whether in Washington DC or Delhi. However, one wonders if this is a tenable argument for firms at large, more so Indian pharmaceutical companies and for brand-India in the long run. What are your thoughts on ‘influence rents’ and an institutional-based view of the firm for other competitor clusters of bio-pharmaceutical activity like in China?Politicians, to some degree, run on payment, payola and “influence rents” all over the world. That is why law enforcement and regulation tends to be relatively weak the world over, and why some companies and sectors get bigger tax breaks or more support than others. From the honesty and quality control side, the fact that enforcement resources are always too small means whistleblowers are especially critical. In a world of small government, the whistleblower and his or her lawyer work as “force multipliers” for good government, while a private right of action means even if the government does not act, the case can still go to court and be seen in the full light of day. Will liars, cheats and thieves oppose such laws? Of course, that is natural.Having said that, “influence rents” work only if you have a good case supporting your goal. For example, let’s look at the policy for price control within India. Clearly, there is a very strong lobby representing OPPI which has significant say over the structure of the policy. However, if you acknowledge that these controls inhibit investments in innovation, and that a business has to make a profit to survive, how does limiting innovation to just “Indian innovation” help the public health system in the country?I know you are legally obligated not to talk about the Ranbaxy case. But could you share some intuition on how Ranbaxy’s actions could have micro-level implications? In terms of what employees develop as skill-sets, what it does to their motivations, and what might be the implication if Ranbaxy has seeded many employees in the industry in other spin-off firms. In fact, some research based on data from LinkedIn shows that Ranbaxy is amongst the highest seeding firms in the industry. So one wonders if there are micro-employee level implications coming out of the event in these days of nano-economics more than micro and macroeconomics — your thoughts?There are some intrinsic challenges in succession planning and leadership development in India that I have noticed in my brief tenure at Ranbaxy and also at Sciformix, the company I co-founded and ran as its CEO for five years until last year. First, it’s a very small group of people who rotate within the senior levels in the industry; successively reaching higher echelons of decision making with each transition. So your premise about seeding people across the industry is very valid. Second, in India especially, I have found that leaders have a real fear of developing their successors for a variety of reasons. There is a large gap by design between a Vice President who heads a function and his second tier, most often the second tier is a senior manager within the function. The hierarchical nature of organisations, especially in India, is designed to not empower middle management to make decisions; these decisions are almost always rolled up to the senior management. Third, there is a sense of entitlement among the employee base, they expect to be recognised/promoted by virtue of their tenure, not according to their accomplishments. This is true of generation X, many of whom have grown very rapidly over the last 10-12 years with a growing economy. Perhaps this is a remnant of the “administrative service” culture which became the core of the country until the early 1990s IT services revolution.Culture plays a very important role in shaping people’s perceptions and actions in terms of decision-making. I wrote an opinion piece in The Hindu where I argued that the much celebrated frugal-innovation, aka “jugaad” is the bane of our approach to quality. In organisations that largely remained hierarchical, fast growth came at the expense of building lasting institutional foundation, which is a hallmark of a sustaining organisation. People who worked for any length of time at Ranbaxy, who left to join other organisations subsequently, took their values and their managerial approach from the culture that they learned from. A good example would be to look at who is in leadership positions at other Indian pharma companies who have been pulled up for similar violations by regulators from the west after my case against Ranbaxy became public.Now for some personal questions. I see that your Linkedin profile has a designation of you being a ‘whistleblower.’ Few know that the US has a long history of laws related to whistle-blowing. In fact if I am not wrong, Ralph Nader first coined the word and the constitution probably by law grants protection to the ‘whistleblower’, wiki tells me, from a legislation going back to 1778. In the context of emerging economies such as India, Brazil or China, i want to ask you if those kinds of protections will help to unearth corporate frauds with a greater frequency in transitional and emerging economies? Or would it be contingent on the basic fabric of an individual wherever he/she is based in blowing the whistle, and will continue to be contingent on luck rather than on regulation?The term whistleblower goes back to the British, when unarmed bobbies would blow a whistle to alert citizens and other bobbies in the area that a criminal was in flight. So, from the beginning, whistle-blowing has been about public-private partnership, with citizens and law enforcement working together for the community good. Some people will always come forward no matter what the cost, but they are rare. When you blow the whistle, the only thing you are guaranteed is that you will lose your job and possibly your career. If you happen to live in India, perhaps you lose your life as well; as has been documented in several cases.Doing the right thing should not be a suicide plan, and that’s what the incentivised integrity programmes in the US are about; if you report a big fraud, the government hits the company for treble damages and out of that sum they pay whistleblower awards, as well as the cost of lost interest, investigations and prosecutions. The fine has to be more than the cost of doing business, and sometimes it actually is. The system works and the government and taxpayers benefit.Will incentivised whistleblower programmes work in India and China as well as the US? Of course, they will. People are the same all over the world. But for them to work, government has to prosecute wrong-doing and levy the fines, and there can be no sacred cows. These investigations are long and often very demanding. During such long, drawn-out investigations, the sanctity of the process and the secrecy of the information provided by the whistleblower have to be maintained. The legal justice system has to work, to protect the whistleblower while the allegations are investigated, and to guarantee the integrity of the investigation from compromise. These are pre-requisites of a functioning whistleblower framework. This is where the challenge is.I want to go back to the topic of ethical production of drugs by the Indian pharmaceutical industry. They, after all, have had a big impact on welfare by supplying cheaper generic medicines across various therapeutic markets globally in the last two decades. What do you see as the way forward for this industry, especially in the light of higher regulatory burden coming from ethical adherence to quality? Will its success stories mellow or will one witness resilient push-back from firms in the sector — your sense?It is true that the Indian generic pharmaceutical industry has had a significant impact on cost and availability of medicines in the third world. Markets in the US and western Europe are lucrative, but the Indian industry has made significant inroads into Africa and Latin America as well, which pale in comparison to the revenue that they generate from the west.We have already discussed the existence of two sets of manufacturing standards within the Indian industry, one catering to the “regulated markets” and a different one catering to the so called “less regulated markets”. The unfortunate issue is that there are no systems to assess the effectiveness and safety of these drugs that are made for the “less regulated” markets in those countries. Take India, for example, I was a part of the effort to devise a safety surveillance system which has now been implemented at a handful of centres across the country a few years ago. Until then, we did not have anything like this to collect and analyse information on the side-effects of drugs taken by patients across India.In the west, the US FDA and the EMEA collect this kind of information which helps them establish the safety and efficacy of drugs in their respective geographies. In the absence of such systems in countries such as India, on what basis do we claim that our drugs have a material impact on public health? Do we have any data that tells us how many times a particular prescription has been changed because of drug-drug interactions? Many of our elderly take more than one drug today, perhaps one for controlling their blood pressure, another one to control their sugar levels and perhaps a third one for their arthritis. We have no data to assess how these formulations (remember, I am saying formulations, manufactured according to the standards for “less regulated” markets) behave in our patient population.Let us also recognise that anyone can make generic drugs. We are not providing any secret information — all we have to offer is cheap labour, new factories, and good quality control. If the quality control is lacking, then it’s all for nothing. Cheap labour will work for a while, but it’s worth remembering how few workers it takes to run a light bulb factory in the west. We are not too far from completely automated generic drug factories; this is the natural evolution of the industry. The future is coming fast, and India would be well prepared if it puts quality first. Quality last will not cut it when it comes to prescription drugs.Going to another key issue, the base of the pyramid markets, as it particularly pertains to people who don’t have access to drugs, do you think drugs with less than sub-optimal efficacy is a welcome compromise to make? For example, daily dose wise — perhaps a doctor would want a 10 mg statin to be the optimal prescription for a poor patient anywhere in the world. But let’s say this patient doesn’t have insurance, and neither would he/she comply to RX-mandated daily dosage. In that case, how would/should pharmaceutical firms treat the issue? Is producing a 3 mg drug for this representative patient okay in your mind, for after all this patient will then get access in all senses (of course without compromising on bio-equivalence for sure)?Medicines don’t work in the way this question is posed. As a part of the testing process, innovator pharma companies establish what is called a “therapeutic dose”. This is the dose that actually works to cure the symptom for which the drug is prescribed. So if the therapeutic dose is 10 mg, giving 3 mg of the same drug to a patient will not help. In fact, in some areas, it is harmful to do so. For example, if you are diagnosed with a bacterial infection, taking a sub-potent drug will not only not cure your ailment, worse, it will engender drug-resistance bacteria. It is for this specific reason that the US laws define “adulterated” drugs as those which contain the active ingredient in quantities lower than approved by the US FDA.How difficult has life been ever since 'Dirty Medicine'? How have your family and friends reacted to the situation? How are you planning to move forward in terms of creating awareness around corporate governance in Indian businesses? Any plans of writing a book or making a movie — a la Al Pacino’s Insider?I am living life as it comes. I have a wonderful family and wonderful friends, and that helps a great deal. It is a comfort that it only takes a small candle to slay a lot of darkness. The world bends towards justice and integrity, and I believe that firmly. But no, I am not planning to star in a movie. I am thinking of how to help in the field of healthcare both in India and in the US. I have been given an opportunity to help, and providence says I must not squander it.Chatterjee is an assistant professor in corporate strategy & policy at IIM-Bangalore and specialises in his research on global healthcare markets. At IIM Bangalore he also holds the Young Faculty Research Chair.(This article was published on December 3, 2013)http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/pharma-industry-has-a-deep-culture-of-corruption/article5418237.ece?homepage=true

NARENDRA MODI leaving no stone unturned...!!!

Narendra Modi targets Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel's legacy, reprints 50,000 copies of 41-year-old biography
Satish Jha | Ahmedabad | Updated: Nov 23 2013, 15:24 ISTSUMMARYModified version of the book has been reprinted by Navjivan Trust, founded by Mahatma Gandhi.The Gujarat government is leaving no stone unturned in its bid to claim the legacy of the country’s first Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel. The government recently got 50,000 copies of an abridged version of a biography of Patel printed. The biography, written by Ravjibhai Patel, was originally written 41 years back. The “modified” version has been reprinted by the Navjivan Trust, founded by Mahatma Gandhi in Ahmedabad.The book, titled Hind Ke Sardar, has been reprinted by Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel Rashtriya Ekta Trust (SVPRET), headed by CM Narendra Modi, who is executing the Statue of Unity project. The book was launched by senior BJP leader L K Advani during its foundation-stone laying ceremony.K Srinivas, joint secretary and a member of SVPRET, said, “The book is the most authentic version on Patel’s life. It has been published by Navjivan Trust, which was chaired by Patel himself for more than 20 years. The copies of the book will be distributed in various parts of the country during meetings related to the construction of the statue.”The cover of the book carries the picture of Patel along with the logo of “Statue of Unity.” There is a special page, which carries Modi’s Foreword, which has been added. Noticeable modifications include the spelling of Ahmedabad as ‘Amdavad’ and the missing author’s note.“We have published the book on the special demand of the state government. There is a 12-page advertisement of the government which has been incorporated . We are also planning to reprint the book in its original form soon,” said Vivek Desai, the managing trustee of Navjivan Trust. The SVPRET has paid Rs 40 per book to the trust.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/narendra-modi-targets-sardar-vallabhbhai-patels-legacy-reprints-50000-copies-of-41yearold-biography/1198674

NIFTY & SENSEX HIGH..BROKERAGE JOBS DOWN.....!!!

40,000 jobs lost as brokerages shut shop despite market surge

MANISHA JHA

522 brokerages, 12,855 sub-brokers down shutters in first half of current fiscal

MUMBAI, NOV. 8:  

The Sensex has been on a high, but not the stock brokerage business.

According to SEBI data, 522 brokerages and 12,855 sub-brokers in the cash segment shut shop in the first six months of this fiscal ended September. That translates into potential job losses for about 40,000 industry hands.Assuming that on average each sub-broker employs two people, the number of jobs lost in just the sub-brokerage business across India would be about 25,710, according to a back-of-the-envelope calculation.

Similarly, assuming that about 5 per cent of the 522 shut brokerages are multiple-branch offices employing an average of 100 people and the remaining 95 per cent are single branch brokerages employing about 20 people each, a total of 12,520 people would have lost their jobs, say industry watchers.Even as this oversupply of laid-off brokers, dealers and analysts floods the job market on the one hand, new job openings in stock brokerage-related jobs, such as analysts and dealers, are down 10 per cent since last year.

As brokerages put their expansion plans and fresh hiring plans on hold, the number of new job openings in the stock market sector has fallen to 362 in October 2013 from 406 in October last year, according to Naukri.com, one of the largest job portals in the country. With the economy passing through a slowdown, brokerages and sub-brokers have been forced to shut shop due to low market volumes, rising costs, squeezed margins and cut-throat competition.Recently, HSBC announced the closure of its retail broking division. Three-hundred jobs disappeared. This was followed by India Infoline, which has begun scaling down its retail business. The company, however, declined to provide details on the number of jobs that will be affected.

Rajiv Parmar, 28, who was once employed as a sub-broker in Mumbai’s upmarket Nariman Point, now sells suitcases and bags while some of his colleagues have joined call-centres or have taken up other sales jobs.“I thought selling suitcases was better than sitting at home and doing nothing, though I miss the thrill and charm of the stock market. My friends in other brokerages, which have downsized, are no better off as they are being made to double up as dealer-cum-relationship managers now for the same salary,” he rued.

HR managers in top brokerages maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook and said that hiring hinges on economic policy certainty and a stable government after the elections, besides a sustained rally in the equity markets based on improvement in fundamentals.

“Markets have just started picking up and we are waiting for it to stabilise before re-starting any fresh hiring,” said Jaya Jacob Alexander, HR Chief, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services.

manisha.jha@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on November 8, 2013)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/40000-jobs-lost-as-brokerages-shut-shop-despite-market-surge/article5330493.ece

Are retail investors making a mistake?.........

Yogini Joglekar & Clifford Alvares  |  Mumbai  

November 3, 2013 Last Updated at 23:18 IST

Are retail investors making a mistake?
Exit from equities if your investment was goal-linked or if you urgently need cash. Else, stay; rebalance your portfolio by picking attractively valued and some better-performing stocks
At a time when the stock market is scaling new peaks, the small investor has been staying away. Brokers are shutting their retail broking divisions and many retail investors are closing their mutual fund (MF) folios.
Retail investors' equity MF assets have dropped 30 per cent in the past three years, while nearly a fourth of MF portfolios were closed last year, shows data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India. HSBC Direct and India Infoline are shutting their retail broking division.
Whatever happened to the retail investor? Why are stock and equity-fund investors shying away from the market, instead of staying and seeing their portfolios grow?
Experts say it's a case of once bitten, twice shy. Over the past few years since the Lehman crisis, many stocks were hit badly, especially infrastructure and old economy stocks, where small investors were largely invested.
Investors are losing faith in equities, because the markets haven't really gone anywhere for last three to four years. Volatility in the market coupled with instability in the rupee acted like a double whammy.
Hence, many investors simply decided to move out not only MS but stocks as well.
Samiksha and Lavish are among such investors. Samiksha Mishra, 35, started pulling out of stocks from 2011 and sold a third of her holdings after they began to regain lost value. Her portfolio was down 80 per cent after the financial crisis, as much of it was in infrastructure and other capital-intensive businesses. Now, as these are beginning to rise again, Mishra is taking the opportunity to exit stocks, altogether. "I decided to slowly start exiting from all my equity holdings. I can't take losses and so have decided to preserve my portfolio and have shifted most it into fixed deposits," she says. She has made decent profits and hence decided to exit at this point in time.Lavish Khosla, 29, has moved out of equities. Investing for eight years, he says his portfolio barely made a 11 per cent return over the years. "I have barely made any money in these years. Had I been in other investments such as fixed income, I would have made a lot more."Most retail investors are in a similar predicament, pondering whether to stay in equities or switch to fixed income products. Equity returns have been erratic these past few years and the recent rally is concentrated in a few segments such as information technology (IT) and pharmaceuticals. Data crunched by BS Research shows nearly 80 per cent of the stocks are still trading below their 2008 peaks. Only 562 of 2,500 stocks are above their highs.Despite the rally, small investors who bought in the heady days of the 2008 boom have not broken even on their investments, forget making a profit. Experts say as these losses are still on their books and on their minds, despite the fact that markets are near their all-time highs, many investors are wanting out. "Investors are moving out because they are sitting on losses and they have a difficulty in accepting further losses. If one finds underperforming stocks in their portfolio, they should check what went wrong with these and if required move to better performing stocks," says Debashish Mallick, chief executive at IDBI MF.It's typical of equity investors to often hold on to losing positions for too long or sit on cash that should be invested in good quality stocks. That's because losses hurt and investors are not used to seeing red in their portfolio. So, at the slightest sign of green in their portfolio, investors begin to exit equities. But they'd do well to remember that stock markets move in cycles and because of this, different industries tend to do well at different points in time. If infrastructure is doing well due to very low interest rates in 2008, IT and pharma are doing well now as a lower rupee improves their bottom line. So, how can retail investors get their mojo back?Stop chasing relative short-term returns: Most investors are moving out of equity into debt products as interest rates have risen, say market watchers. While the nearly nine per cent tax-free return does sound attractive when equities were beaten down, investors must remember that equities are also tax-free if held for over a year.Keeping a long-term horizon: Experts say while investing in equities, make sure you keep a long-term horizon. When one invests in fixed income products, there are lock-in periods or we typically know when the product will mature and be ready for withdrawal. Since equity stocks can be held for years together, there is no exact time when you know you want to exit from it. However, if investment is linked to a particular goal (e.g child's education/marriage, retirement, etc), one should exit when nearing that goal. Hence, make sure you have a horizon long enough to give your investments time to grow.Not exiting equities abruptly: "One is always surrounded with news, whether good or bad. Keeping a track of your stock and news related to your stock is a very good habit. However, one should learn to analyse a situation and not panic if there are negative sentiments in the market. And, most important, not panic and exit from your investments abruptly," says Rajesh Saluja, managing director and chief executive officer, ASK Wealth Advisors.Rebalancing portfolio regularly: It's very important to keep checking your portfolio on a regular basis. One cannot invest in a set of stocks and revisit these only at the time of wishing to sell. The process of rebalancing helps you return your portfolio to its target asset allocation as outlined in your investment plan. It can be tedious because you will be forced to sell some underperforming stocks and replace these with stocks which would have attractive valuation at that point. You would have to study stocks' past performance to get a clearer sense.Not expecting unrealistic returns: While there is nothing wrong in expecting your portfolio to return well, one should know what kind of returns one's stocks can give, based on historical data. Experts say in volatile markets, any returns that beat real inflation and the returns given by fixed deposits should be considered as an investment returned well. Hence, stick to your investment plan and rebalance whenever needed, instead of simply chasing unrealistic returns.Retail investors exit the market either prematurely or enter at the latter stages of a bull run. This exacerbates their losses and reflects a lack of understanding of how markets function. Says Debashish Mallick, chief executive, IDBI MF: "Stocks do move up or down but if you have done your job well, stocks do well over the long run ."Invest regularly: You can invest regularly, rejig your portfolio to the companies that are performing well and keep your sights on the long-term goals. Stocks eventually do well, provided you've done your homework and have invested in the right stocks for the long haul, say experts. Says Apoorva Shah, executive vice-president & fund manager (equity), DSP BlackRock MF: "Investors are making a mistake by exiting at this stage. First, they invest in MFs by looking at one or two-year returns, which is not right. They should look at a longer period to get a better sense."Look for value: Stock valuations are also at their lows. Most banking stocks are available at dividend yields of seven to eight per cent. Dividends are tax-free in the hands of investors. The Sensex is currently trading at a price to earnings (PE) multiple of 18.27 times, whereas in the previous peak of 2008, it was trading at 28.51 times.Besides, historically, it's been seen that equities tend to outperform fixed income in the long run, though they are volatile in the short run. "Markets are set to perform better as earnings have improved after many years of sluggish growth. Hence, one should stay invested and take calculative decisions and not panic in such situations," adds Shah of DSP BlackRock.Invest in parts: Investors should not invest a lump sum all at once. Instead, they should divide their investment corpus in four or five parts and invest gradually over three to six months or longer. This will reduce the volatility in your portfolio, as you can accumulate stocks over a longer period. It can also help reduce your mistakes. The recent past has been anything but pleasant and there will surely be mistakes when investing in stocks. Some of the savviest investors have made plenty of mistakes. "But the bigger mistake some retail investors are making now is by staying out of the market and not allowing their profits to run," adds Saluja of ASK Wealth.http://www.business-standard.com/article/pf/are-retail-investors-making-a-mistake-113110400062_1.html

Niira Radia tapes leaked due to corporate rivalry: Ratan Tata...........!!!!!!!

Niira Radia tapes leaked due to corporate rivalry: Ratan Tata to Supreme Court
PTI | New Delhi | Updated: Oct 26 2013, 08:21 IST
Former Tata Group chairman Ratan Tata today told the Supreme Court that the tapped telephonic conversations between corporate lobbyist Niira Radia and top politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen, including himself, were leaked to the media because of corporate rivalry.
"This order for tapping was passed because of extraneous reasons. If corporate battle had not happend, this would not have come out in public," senior advocate Harish Salve, appearing for Tata, said adding "I do not have any doubt that the original leak happened because of corporate rivalry".Salve told an apex court bench that Tata Telecommunication itself gets around 10,000 to 15,100 requests from the government every year for interception of calls and questioned the Centre for not finding out who leaked the tapped conversation.
"Tata Telecom itself gets around 10 to 15 thousand requests per year for interception of call. The total number of such requests must be around 60-70 thousand per year for all telecom companies," Salve told the bench headed by Justice G S Singhvi.The bench, also comprising justice V Gopala Gowda, said that "in the instant case, recording was done at the instance of the income tax department and at the same time by some service provider at the risk of losing the licence".
Salve submitted there is no proper mechanism to go through tapped conversations to find out the relevant information and destroy those parts which are private in nature. Salve also raised question on the probe agency saying "the investigating agency used the media, which is a very dangerous trend"."We don't know why it (Radia tape) was leaked and to embarrass whom," he submitted.
"The government should keep the relevant portion (of the tape) with itself but should have destroyed rest of them. It is not allowed to keep the entire tapped conversation. People's right to privacy has to be protected," he said. Salve said the review committee is overloaded and it is not possible for it to go through the entire process for all intercepted calls."There are many like the present one which have not come into light. Who is looking at all these cases? Are we allowing the dynamite to be used at different times by not destroying the tapped conversation which is of no use for the government authorities"? he said.
He pleaded an inquiry be done by the Centre into the leak which is completely of "exculpating nature" and there is inconsistency in the affidavit filed by the government "Government has thrown up its hand. Media and petitioners are not above law. RTI is there and governemnt authority is to decide whether the tapped conversation is to be made public or not. We have now RTI structure to bring transparency," he said while submitting that the tapped conversation be not made public.
"Media has the right to probe public affairs matters and law also protects them to an extent. But publication cannot be done on the basis of mere suspicion. Media must do its own follow-up investigation to prove the authenticity of a gossip before publishing it," he said.Salve said the media's justifying the publication of the transcripts annexed with the petition and affidavits in the apex court cannot be sustained.
The documents placed in the courts cannot be inferred to be in the public domain. "What I challenge is the assertion made by a newsmagazine that if something is placed in the Supreme Court, it is in the public domain and there is a right to publish," the senior advocate said.At this submission the bench also said "who took the stand that since it (transcript) is a part of the Supreme Court record, it is in public domain and can be published"."Do they say they got it from the Supreme Court"? The bench said.Responding to the query, Salve said "nowhere" they said like that.
He also said that though the court has ordered a preliminary inquiry by CBI into certain issues arising out of the tapped conversations, it could turn out to be a conversation making out no case.The conversations were recorded as part of surveillance of Radia's phone on a complaint to the Finance Minister on November 16, 2007 alleging that within a span of nine years she had built up a business empire worth Rs 300 crore.The government had recorded 180 days of Radia's conversations--first from August 20, 2008 for 60 days and then from October 19 for another 60 days. Later, on May 11, 2009, her phone was again put on surveillance for another 60 days following a fresh order given on May 8.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/niira-radia-tapes-leaked-due-to-corporate-rivalry-ratan-tata-to-supreme-court/1187218/0

CSR to make available 50,000 more jobs in the sector: Experts

By PTI | 13 Oct, 2013, 11.18AM IST
NEW DELHI: Compulsory corporate social responsibility is likely to increase the demand for professionals in this field by as much as 50 per cent in the coming years and the industry is likely to see at least 50,000 more job opportunities in the CSR sector, experts say. 
Around 8,000 companies would fall under the Companies Act's ambit and this in turn would open a host of new job opportunities for individuals looking to work in the social development field. At present, the CSR work of a company is mostly done by corporate communications team but with this law, many firms would have to build a strong team of around five-six people for the purpose. 
According to leading executive search firm GlobalHunt MD Sunil Goel, "the demand for CSR professionals will surge 50-60 per cent and we may have to train fresh hands to fulfil this need of the industry". 
Echoing similar sentiments, DLF Foundation CEO Rajender Singh said, "some of the demand for CSR professionals is likely to be filled with internal placement. However, the industry is likely to see at least 50,000 more job opportunities in the CSR sector".
According to experts, the social sector is already a popular option and has low entry barriers and going forward, a lot of people could explore CSR as a career option. 
"CSR should see a spurt in career opportunities. But the real growth would be in effective CSR management agencies which would require a combination of management and CSR experts," Ashwajit Singh, Chairman and MD, IPE Global, a management consultancy company for development sector, said. 
According to Changeyourboss.com CEO Bhupender Mehta: "Big or small, every company makes efforts towards corporate social responsibility with intention of giving something back to the society and with this law, the number of people exploring CSR as a career option will go up for sure." 

Select companies would have spend two per cent of their average profit over the last three years for CSR. 

This would be applicable to firms having turnover of Rs 1,000 crore or more, or with net worth of Rs 500 crore and above, or entities having net profit of Rs 5 crore and more. 
Experts, however, believe that NGO's may not be the target to build the CSR team, and many institutes such as TISS and XISS have trained talent that can be hired through campus placements for the purpose. 
They say people with experience in projects management in organisations like UNDP can also be invited to join the teams. 
"For the companies who will be honestly getting into this for the first time will not poach employees from NGOs, but may look at some sort of tie-ups to avoid the hassles of making the numbers," Prisma Global Executive Director and COO Amitabh Roy Chowdhury said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/jobs/csr-to-make-available-50000-more-jobs-in-the-sector-experts/articleshow/24082365.cms

Tulip Telecom ...salary dues..????

Tulip Telecom staff intensify protest over salary dues

ADITH CHARLIE

MUMBAI, OCT.10:  

Employees of Tulip Telecom have intensified protests against the company for not paying salaries due for nearly a year.

A section of staffers told Business Line that more than 100 of them have been congregating outside Tulip’s offices in New Delhi and Mumbai.A company spokesperson did not comment on the protests but admitted that it has been facing difficulties in making payments. However, she reiterated that a part of the dues have already been paid.

“Tulip signed the master restructuring agreement under the corporate debt restructuring process a few months back but is still awaiting release of funds. While the company continues to clear part salaries, it expects to clear about two-month salaries after release of bank funds,” the spokesperson said in an email response.Tulip had approached 13 of its lenders during October-December last year for recasting its debt of nearly Rs 3,000 crore. The lenders approved of the package and the company will now have to clear the loans over the next 12 years.

In August, Hardeep Singh Bedi, Chairman and Managing Director, said the company would begin the process of clearing the dues of its 4,500-odd employees. Despite operational troubles, Tulip says it ‘remains committed to its employees and values the employee interests.’Over the last few years, the company has been accumulating short-term debt due to heavy investments in data centres coupled with working capital requirements. However, these investments did not bring in the expected revenues, say analysts.

Tulip had defaulted on redemption of foreign currency convertible bonds worth $140 million due in August last year, apart from delaying salaries. Ultimately, it used proceeds from the sale of its stake in the joint venture with Qualcomm to repay this debt.

(This article was published on October 10, 2013)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/info-tech/tulip-telecom-staff-intensify-protest-over-salary-dues/article5222000.ece

CSR- Charity to Responsibility

Shekhar Shah  September 14, 2013 Last Updated at 21:50 IST

Shekhar Shah: Moving from charity to responsibility - The rules for India's new companies act

How can chief executive officers, shareholders, governments and citizens ensure that the new corporate social responsibility money will make a difference? Make CSR evidence-basedIndia's rapidly-growing philanthropic community has received a huge shot in the arm with the CSR provisions of the new Companies Act: companies above a certain size must formulate a CSR policy and annually spend at least two per cent of their average net profits over the prior three years. That will translate in 2014 into about 8,000 companies spending some Rs 12,000-15,000 crores ($1.9-2.4 billion) annually - CSR numbers unheard of in India.

On what should companies spend their hard-earned profits?

Surely, in a country with some 270 million poor living on less than Rs 30 a day, that should be an easy question to answer: spend it all on the poor and the disadvantaged, open a school or a health clinic, put an extra meal in the hands of a child, and do it locally so that the company can see and talk to the beneficiary. Indeed, the Act asks companies to give preference in their CSR funding to the local areas in which they operate. The Act also gives guidance in its Schedule VII on what to do: address extreme hunger and poverty, promote education, support gender equality, reduce child mortality, improve maternal health, combat diseases, ensure environmental sustainability, enhance vocational skills, promote social enterprise, and, at the end, "such other matters as may be prescribed".

This guidance is appealing in many ways. These are good outcomes to aim for. They are also expenditures that tug at the heart-strings and can be emotionally satisfying, connecting the giver and the receiver, and, on the face of it, justifying the giving. And the smiling photographs, inspiring quotes, and true life-stories in annual reports can help convey the immediacy of a company's CSR as nothing else can. Add SPARQ codes and on-demand YouTube videos, and it is a potent mix. Companies should of course do all this.

Yet it would be a big mistake to restrict CSR funding only to on-the-ground projects. And it would fly in the face of the rising global trend in governments, the private sector, and donors to ask for the knowledge of actual impact - to know the evidence of what works and what doesn't and why - before spending large sums of money.

When done without the benefit of knowledge acquired from the careful gathering and analysis of field data and evidence, and from piloting, evaluation and meta-studies, the actual outcomes and sustainability of CSR projects can be highly uncertain. The world is littered with well-intentioned, expensive schemes that look about right and spend much money, but have little or none of their intended impact. Or worse, have unintended and undesirable consequences - such as money or subsidies going mostly to the rich, or education that actually reduces employability. The link between more money and outcomes is often not as simple as might appear.

There is much evidence to show that when all other factors are taken into account, there is little correlation between merely spending more money on education, health, and livelihoods and better outcomes for poor people. If that had not been the case, India could surely have licked its problems of child malnutrition and poor learning outcomes a long time back. The solution to infant mortality and morbidity may appear to be to increase health expenditures, but there is overwhelming evidence that it is poor sanitation and water supply that needs to be tackled first. There is a classic example of de-worming in Africa where de-worming tablets distributed in schools successfully tackled multiple problems of nutrition, school attendance and educational attainment. The evidence for such interventions can only come through careful, systematic research.

For that reason, the new CSR rules should explicitly provide for the funding of such research at institutions with a strong track record of quality and credibility. High-quality applied research related to the activities listed in the Act can show the strengths and weaknesses of public and private development projects, examine how the supply of benefits will interact with the demand and preferences of beneficiaries, and identify weak links that should be corrected as companies construct their CSR policies.

Allowing companies to use a part of their mandatory CSR spending to fund research and credible, independent research institutions would have at least five large benefits for the nation. First, the more evidence-based CSR is, the greater the bang for the buck that companies can expect. As the size of the economy grows, this can be a game-changer.

Second, risk-taking and innovation are at the heart of successful companies. If applied to CSR, this can strengthen the mind-set of piloting and learning through doing, a research-to-policy tradition that in our impatience to scale up remains weak in India compared to other large nations.

Third, evidence-based CSR can allow even modest CSR expenditures to produce superior and more sustainable outcomes than much larger public schemes, and indeed, show the way for such schemes.

Fourth, India spends substantially less on its social and policy research institutions than other large economies. Given its heterogeneity and scale, it should be spending more. Sound CSR funding can help address that problem.

Finally, there is a long-standing Indian tradition of corporate and individual philanthropic support for research institutions that the new CSR Rules should build on rather than ignore. My own institution was established soon after India's independence with funding not just from the government but, at Pandit Nehru's behest, very substantially from J R D Tata and others.

With the increasing demand for evidence, outcome-based solutions and the measurement of effectiveness, the role of policy research institutions in India must grow. Independent think tanks and research institutions form a valuable link between ideas, policies, and implementation by supplying the evidence, the platform for debate and dialogue, and the bridge between governments, the private sector, citizens, and the media in shaping public policy.

Fortunately, the just-released draft CSR Rules make it clear that a company may also use its CSR Fund to support independent Indian trusts, societies, or Section 8 companies with an established track record, not just those set up by the company. Many credible Indian research institutions would fall within this definition, and many new ones could come up. If the ministry of corporate affairs and its young minister are persuaded that robust research and evidence-based CSR will produce superior results for the India of tomorrow, then it should have no problem in accepting Indian companies wanting to invest in the country's long-term capacity to produce such evidence and analysis.

If India does not invest systematically in such research capacity, it will get much less of a bang for the buck from the heightened social responsibility that the new Companies Act asks for. The ministry of corporate affairs owes it to the future of India's disadvantaged, and the millions of its young, to allow companies to do so.

---

The writer is Director-General of NCAER, the National Council of Applied Economic Research in New Delhi

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/shekhar-shah-moving-from-charity-to-responsibility-the-rules-for-india-s-new-companies-act-113091400713_1.html